It appears to be tied to commercial skipping crashing / locking the data file in the .grab folder. When I kill that process, the ts file is immediately passed to the postprocessing script. Any reason not to replace the commercial script with a renamed version of the donator version of Comskip?
Seems pretty definitive that Plex Commercial Skipper.exe is the culprit this time around. Replacing it with Comskip doesn’t work, but the recordings don’t fail either 
Just tried installing Plex Commercial Skipper.exe from 1.12.x - needed to copy several of the DLLs to make it work. Will report back if it’s successful in removing commercials…
Copying the Plex Commercial Skipper.exe (and associated DLLs) from 1.12.x to 1.13.x fixes the 100% bug.
Check that - commercial removal still doesn’t work now, but at least the 100% recording bug isn’t there…